一种战场物资消耗自适应预测模型  

Research on A Self-Adaptive Forecast Model of Material Consumption in Battlefield

作　　者：杜秋[1] 苏喜生[1] 高良 许子君[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事经济学院军需系,武汉430035 [2]军事经济学院襄樊分院,湖北襄阳441000

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2011年第10期20-22,38,共4页Ordnance Industry Automation

摘　　要：为解决战场物资消耗这一复杂非线性问题,在分析传统消耗预测方法的基础上,设计一套战场物资消耗量的自适应预测模型,对卡尔曼滤波的自适应机制进行详细探讨,并通过算例对自适应预测模型进行检验。结果表明:该模型能有效克服由于战场的不确定因素对物资消耗预测所带来的影响,在一定阈值范围内,控制预测值和实际值的误差,实现对战场物资消耗量相对准确的预测。To solve the complex non-linear problem of material consumption in battlefield,a new self-adaptive forecast model of material consumption in battlefield is established in this paper,based on the analysis of traditional forecasting method,and the self–adaptive mechanism based on Kalman filter is discussed in detail,which is tested by an instance.The result shows that the model can achieve a relatively accurate prediction by overcoming the impact of uncertainties in battlefield,and the error between predictive value and actual value can be controlled within a certain threshold.

关 键 词：卡尔曼滤波 战场物资消耗 预测模型 自适应 

分 类 号：TJ06[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]