自回归移动平均模型在医疗服务需求预测中的应用  

Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in the Prediction of Medical Service Demand

作　　者：张柠[1] 苏学艳[2] 李力[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学卫生管理与教育学院,北京100069 [2]石家庄市妇幼保健院,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《中国医院管理》2011年第10期6-8,共3页Chinese Hospital Management

摘　　要：目的拟合医疗服务需求时间序列资料的预测模型。方法采用自回归移动平均模型对出院人次进行模型拟合。结果模型拟合得到的最优模型为一阶自回归移动平均模型,模型预测2020年某市三甲医院的出院总人次将为93.88万人次。结论自回归移动平均模型适用于出院总人次时间序列模型拟合,预测结果显示,在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,三甲医院出院总人次将会延续2009年以前的上升趋势继续上涨。Objective To fit the prediction model that suit to the time series data of the medical service demand.Meth-ods Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to fit the change of numbers of discharged patients.Re-sults The average numbers which will be 938.8 thousand of discharged patients of A-level tertiary hospital in 2020 were forecasted by this model.Conclusion The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model is applicable to fitting and predicting the time series of medical service demand.The estimation result shows that without the effect of external fac-tors,the number of discharged patient of A-level tertiary hospital will keep increasing with the trend before 2009.

关 键 词：自回归移动平均模型 医疗服务需求 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]