基于Agent的经济政策对电力消费影响模拟实验  

Simulating Impact of Macroeconomic Policy on Electricity Consumption Based on Multi-agent

作　　者：徐敏杰[1] 胡兆光[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2011年第5期539-548,共10页Journal of Systems & Management

摘　　要：为了模拟某些经济调控政策对电力消费的影响,基于一般均衡思想,运用多Agent技术建立了经济政策对电力消费影响的政策模拟系统ECMAS。在ECMAS中,根据2005年投入产出表和电力消费数据,将宏观经济生产系统归总的15个行业Agent、政府Agent、居民Agent和市场Agent,各Agent为实现自身的目标,根据外部环境的变化决策动作行为,通过微观个体的行为动作模拟社会经济运行,分析了税收变化、居民消费变化、政府支出变化对电力消费的影响,为电力需求分析预测、电力规划提供依据。In order to simulate impacting of macroeconomic policy on electricity consumption,an Electricity Consumption Simulation System Based on Multi-agent System（ECMAS） was developed based on general equilibrium theory.In ECMAS,macroeconomic system consists of government agent,resident agent,market agent and fifteen industry agents who were concluded according to 2005 I/O table and data of electricity consumption.Through simulating agent＇s behavior,the impact of macroeconomic policy,household consumption expenditure and government expenditure on electricity consumption is analyzed.

关 键 词：政策模拟 多智能体系统 一般均衡理论 电力消费 

分 类 号：F019.6[经济管理—政治经济学] TM9[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]