中国房地产市场金融加速器效应的实证研究  

Empirical Research upon Effect of Financial Accelerator in China Real Estate Market

作　　者：王墨烜[1] 易成栋[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学土地管理系 [2]中央财经大学城市与房地产管理系

出　　处：《中国房地产（学术版）》2011年第9期61-68,共8页China Real Estate

摘　　要：中国房地产市场近年来一直处于非理性繁荣状态,因此,中央政府陆续出台一系列房地产调控政策旨在挤出房地产泡沫,平抑其投资过热现象,从而实现宏观经济在金融危机后的软着陆。此外,央行不断上调存款准备金率和基准利率更是加重了仍处在调控政策消化阶段的房地产市场的下行预期。根据金融加速器理论,初始的外部冲击通过信贷市场的放大作用,最终将引发大幅度的市场波动,破坏实体经济的正常运行。房地产企业的高负债率和开发模式决定了房地产市场中金融加速器效应十分显著,尤其是在政策变动和楼市供求关系发生逆转的情况下,表现更为明显。最后提出了相应的政策建议。China real estate industry has undergone irrational exuberance in recent years, therefore, Central Government issues a series of regulatory policies upon real estate market, aiming at curb the real estate bubble and over-investment phenomenon for the sake of smooth economic development after the financial crisis. Besides, the frequent policy of raising both required reserve ratio and benchmark in- terest rate from Central Bank further aggravates the expectations upon the downward trends of real es- tate market which still suffers from severe regulations, according to the financial accelerator theory, the initial external shock, albeit minute, would finally cause great market volatility and undermine normal operations of the real economy through the function of credit market, and the high debt ratio and development model of real estate industry in China enhance its significance of the financial accelerator, especially at the inflexion stage. The paper also puts some forward policy suggestions.

关 键 词：金融加速器 房地产泡沫 房地产周期 货币政策 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]