亚洲典型区域暴雨洪灾风险评价研究  

Storm Flood Risk Assessment in the Typical Regions of Asia

作　　者：刘家福[1,2] 李京[2] 梁雨华[1] 刘湘南[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京师范大学,北京100875 [3]中国地质大学信息工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《地理科学》2011年第10期1266-1271,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国际科技合作计划专项项目(2007DFA20640);国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAC44B03);国家自然科学基金(40771155);吉林师范大学博士科研启动项目(2010022)资助

摘　　要：基于洪灾风险基本原理,从暴雨致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体易损性出发,以亚洲东南沿海区域为示范研究区,综合考虑降水、地形、土地利用、植被、河网密度、人口、经济等主要指标,利用定性及定量综合分析方法,对亚洲洪灾进行风险综合评价研究。首先利用地理信息系统的数据处理功能,对相关指标进行归一化数据处理,得到标准化的多源栅格数据;然后基于层次分析法确定各相关指标影响因子权重,构建洪灾综合风险评估模型,最后利用GIS的地图代数功能,得出亚洲典型地区洪灾综合风险等级评价图。结果表明,暴雨洪灾等级高值区主要分布在中国东南部、中国东北部分地区及沿海一带,紧邻孟加拉的印度东部,孟加拉东部及缅甸的东北部地区;中等、较高风险区域主要分布在日本、韩国以及印度北部及西南大部分地区,菲律宾的吕宋岛地区;而在中国西北部大部分地区为中低风险区。Based on the basic principles of flood risk, this study took the coastal areas in southeastern Asia （SEA） as the study area. By integrating the indicators including the rainfall, topography, land use, vegetation, river density, population, and the economic strength, the flood risk over the chosen study area was evaluated through both qualitative and quantitative methods. The indicators used were firstly normalized to obtain stan- dardized multi-source raster data by the GIS （Geographic Information System） techniques. The AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process） technique was then utilized to estimate the weights of those indicators, and used to devel- op a model for risk assessments. The map algebra in GIS was finally employed to generate the flood zoning map over the typical Asian areas. The results show that the high risk regions of flood storm primarily include the southeastern, northeastern, and coastal areas of China, the eastern India near Bangladesh, the eastern Ban- gladesh, and the northeastern Myanmar; the medium risk regions are mainly located in Japan, South Korea, the most parts of southwestern India, the northern India and the Luzon Island of Philippines; the low risk ones principally are located in most parts of northwestern China.

关 键 词：亚洲 暴雨洪灾 灾害风险 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]