应用ARIMA模型预测嘉峪关市痢疾发病率的可行性  

Feasibility of application of ARIMP model to predicate incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan

作　　者：冯玉娟[1] 姚志强[2] 李福轮[1] 李国强[2] 裴凌云[1] 杨朝霞[2] 李芝兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]嘉峪关市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《疾病监测》2011年第9期749-752,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的探讨应用ARIMA模型进行痢疾发病率预测的可行性,为甘肃省嘉峪关市痢疾防治提供参考依据。方法应用Eviews 5.0软件对2000-2008年嘉峪关市痢疾发病率进行模型拟合,所得到的模型对2009年1-6月痢疾发病率进行预测,并与实际值进行比较。结果 ARIMA(2,1,3)×(1,1,1)12模型拟合效果总体较好,其对2009年1-6月痢疾发病率预测值符合实际值的变化趋势。结论 ARIMA模型可以模拟嘉峪关市痢疾的发病率,并能够预测痢疾的变动趋势,为该市痢疾防治提供一定帮助。Objective To evaluate the feasibility of the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average（ARIMA） model to predict the incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of dysentery.Methods Eviews 5.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly incidence of dysentery in Jiayuguan from January 2000 to December 2008.Then the constructed model was used to predict the monthly incidence of dysentery from January to June in 2009 and the prediction result was compared with the actual incidence.Results ARIMA（2,1,3）×（1,1,1）12 fitted well,the predicated incidence was consistent with the actual incidence.Conclusion The method of time series analysis can be used to simulate the change of dysentery incidence and predict the incidence in the future in Jiayuguan.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 预测 痢疾 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]