海峡西岸旅游区视角下的福建省入境旅游发展研究  

RESEARCH ON INBOUND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN FUJIAN PROVINCE UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF "THE WEST COAST OF STRAIT TOURISM REGION"

作　　者：江海旭[1] 李悦铮[1,2] 李芬[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连116029 [3]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州350007

出　　处：《人文地理》2011年第5期133-137,共5页Human Geography

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅创新团队项目(2007T096)

摘　　要：利用市场占有率、地理集中指数和变异系数对福建省入境旅游地域分布的空间聚集性进行定量分析。研究表明:入境旅游具有较高的空间聚集性,主要分布在厦门、泉州、福州,港澳台游客占主导,外国游客以美国、日本、新加坡和马来西亚居多。福建省2000—2008年入境旅游统计资料作为原始数据,建构GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型并进行精度检验。研究表明:模型预测结果与实际数据基本一致,进而利用该模型对福建省未来五年入境旅游指标进行预测。Inbound tourism development level is the important symbol of measuring tourism industry international level and industry maturity of a country or a region,tourism begins with inbound tourism which is an important part of Chinese tourism market.The spatial concentration of regional distribution of inbound tourism in Fujian Province is analyzed from quantitative perspective by using market share ratio,geographic concentration index and the coefficient of variation.The research indicates that inbound tourism has higher spatial concentration,mainly in Xiamen,Quanzhou and Fuzhou,receiving about 80 percent of inbound tourists in Fujian Province;tourists from Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan play a dominant role while tourists from America,Japan,Singapore and Malaysia account for a larger percentage of foreign market share.From the year 2000 to 2008,geographic concentration index of space distribution of inbound tourism flow in Fujian Province reduces from 47.89 to 46.98,which shows that the concentration of inbound tourism is decreasing in Fujian Province;variation coefficient of inbound tourism reception reduces from 109.4 to 105.32 in nine cities,which shows that the relative gap of inbound tourism is lessening and the inbound tourism reception in nine cities has developed rapidly.Based on relevant statistics from the year 2000 to 2008 in Fujian Province,this paper constructed GM（1,1） gray predictive dynamic model and made an accuracy test.The research shows that model predictions are basically identical with actual data.Furthermore,the inbound tourism index of Fujian province for the next five years is predicted by the model.The results revealed inbound tourists would reach 5.2738 million people,tourism foreign exchange income would reach 6.858 billion dollars in Fujian Province by 2014.

关 键 词：入境旅游 发展研究 GM(1 1)模型 福建省 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]