灰色理论用于风力发电容量中长期预测的研究  

A study of grey theory used in prediction of medium and long-term wind power generation

作　　者：孟祥星[1,2] 田成微[3] 冬雷[3] 高阳[4] 郝颖[3] 廖晓钟[3] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江电力调度通信中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [3]北京理工大学自动化学院,北京100081 [4]沈阳工程学院电气工程系,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2011年第21期81-85,共5页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50777003);中电投科技项目(2009064ZDGKJX);沈阳工程学院2010科技项目~~

摘　　要：采用灰色理论对风电场的年风力发电容量进行了预测。考虑到风力发电容量主要取决于风速,通过预装风电机组的发电容量并结合风速数据资料建立风速-功率函数。将从国家气象信息中心得到的日平均风速数据代入风速-功率函数,从而得到每天的发电容量数据。以年为周期进行积分,得到年风力发电计算容量。利用这些年风力发电计算容量建立灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对富锦风力发电场某风力发电机组的发电计算容量进行了预测。以年为单位,对该风电机组48年风力发电计算容量进行单步预测的归一化平均绝对误差为7.8806%。该预测结果表明灰色理论用于风力发电容量中长期预测中具有可行性。In this paper, the grey theory is proposed to predict the annual wind power of a wind farm. Considering that wind power generation depends on wind speed, first we may establish wind - power function through the wind power of the pre-installed wind turbine and the corresponding wind speed. And then, bring the daily wind speed data obtained from the National Meteorological Information Center into the wind - power function to obtain the daily wind power. Lastly, we integrate the daily wind power data by an annual cycle, and get the annual wind power. By using the calculated annum wind power, we can establish a grey information renewal GM （ 1, 1 ） model. Moreover, the model is applied to predict the annual wind power of a wind turbine in Fujin wind farm. We obtain that the normalized average absolute error of the 48 data predicted is 7. 8806%. The predicted result shows that the grey theory for medium and long-term wind power forecasting is feasible.

关 键 词：新陈代谢模型 灰色预测 灰色模型 风力发电容量预测 平均绝对误差 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]