基于电子渠道需求预测的渠道模式选择  

Channel Selection Based on the Demand Forecast of E-channel

作　　者：滕文波[1,2] 庄贵军[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学,陕西西安710049 [2]国家级实验教学示范中心,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2011年第5期71-78,共8页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70972102);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71132005)

摘　　要：本文基于Jerath等人的需求预测模型,探讨了电子渠道信息收集能力如何影响渠道成员收益及渠道总收益,并进一步分析了其对渠道模式、信息分享策略的影响。通过对模型的求解,得到了渠道成员的均衡策略及其影响因素。研究结果表明:经销商总是选择不分享私有信息,而厂商的渠道模式选择受电子渠道需求预测精度、市场波动、电子渠道潜在消费者比例等因素的影响。渠道的均衡策略有可能是既无电子渠道也无信息分享,也有可能是有电子渠道无信息分享。同时,当相关参数范围满足某些条件时,可通过协调机制使得建立电子渠道、分享信息成为新的均衡策略,并且这一策略满足帕累托优化。Based on Jerath＇s demand forecast model,this paper studies the impact of the information-gathering capability of e-channel on the profit of the channel members and total channel,then further analyzes the strategies of channel selection and information-sharing.By solving the model,we have got the channel members＇ equilibrium strategies and the factors that affect the strategies.The conclusion implies that retailers always choose not to share its private information and the manufactories make the channel selection based on the accuracy of the e-channel＇s prediction information,the market＇s uncertainty,the proportion of potential consumers who would like to buy through the e-channel and other factors.The channel＇s equilibrium strategy may be no information sharing in traditional channel or no information sharing in e-dual channels.And when some conditions are satisfied,information sharing in e-dual channels would be a Pareto strategy by some coordination mechanism.

关 键 词：电子渠道 需求预测精度 信息分享 渠道模式选择 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]