世界主要经济体通货膨胀预期的异质性研究  

作　　者：周潮[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行张掖市中心支行,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《浙江金融》2011年第9期25-30,共6页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：本文构建了中国、日本、美国和欧元区通货膨胀预期不确定性的GARCH度量模型,并利用广义脉冲响应函数、格兰杰因果关系检验和TGARCH模型信息反映曲线等实证技术分析了1983年1月至2010年7月世界主要经济体通货膨胀及其预期不确定性之间的关系。研究发现:世界主要经济体通货膨胀及其预期不确定性关系的差距取决于各国中央银行的独立性,相对于其他经济体,对通货膨胀的控制比追求经济增长更重要,中国的货币政策应及早实施通货膨胀目标制。The paper constructs the GARCH measurement model about the uncertainty of inflationary expectations of China, Japan, U. S. and the Euro area, and uses based techical analysis such as generalized impulse response function, granger causality test and TAtLCH model information reflects curve to analyze the reIationship between inflation in the world＂ s major economic entities and uncertainty of their expectations from January 1983 to July 2010. Research found that the difference of the relationship between inflation in the world＇ s major economic entities and uncertainty of their expectations depends on the independence of the central Banks. Relative to other economic entities, to control inflation is more important than to seek economic growth. China＇s monetary policy should implement inflation targeting regime as soon as possible.

关 键 词：通货膨胀:预期不确定性 GARCH族模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]