中国农村居民生活用能及CO_2排放情景分析  

Rural living energy utilization and CO_2 emissions scenario analysis in China

作　　者：田宜水[1] 赵立欣[1] 孙丽英[1] 孟海波[1] 姚宗路[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部规划设计研究院,北京100125

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2011年第10期206-211,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(0810010)

摘　　要：为全面掌握中国农村居民生活用能发展趋势与温室气体排放潜力,该文基于长期能源可替代规划系统(LEAP模型),模拟了3种政策情景下2020年农村生活用能需求和CO2排放情况。结果表明:2020年中国农村居民生活用能需求量约2.95～3.75亿t,呈上升趋势;如果采取强有力的政策措施,可减少CO2排放量约0.87亿t。该研究可为中国政府出台应对气候变化、减少温室气体排放的政策措施提供依据。In order to investigate the energy use trend of rural residents and greenhouse gas emission potential,rural living energy demand and CO2 emission in 2020 were simulated under three kinds of policy scenarios based on long-term energy alternative planning system（LEAP model）.The results showed that the living energy demand of rural residents was about 295 to 375 million t in 2010,which showed an increasing tendency.If strong policy measures were taken,about 87 million t CO2 emissions would be reduced.This study provides the basis for Chinese government to issue policy measures for addressing climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emission.

关 键 词：农村地区 CO2 模型 生活用能 情景分析 

分 类 号：X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学]