工程项目的感知风险测量与管理投入的关系——对建筑企业的实证研究  

The relationship between perceived risk measures and managerial input of engineering projects——an empirical study of construction companies

作　　者：莫力科[1] 陆绍凯[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学,广东深圳518060 [2]西南交通大学,四川成都610031

出　　处：《土木工程学报》2011年第11期128-133,共6页China Civil Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70902037);西南交通大学"竢实之星"项目(2010023)

摘　　要：对工程项目感知风险测量和管理投入的研究,不仅可以更好地预测及影响实践中的风险决策行为,而且具有重要的理论价值。本文首先对建筑业中主要的感知风险测量方法进行回顾,并通过问卷搜集相关数据,分析各种方法得到的风险评估结果与风险管理投入的关系。研究结果表明:用直接感知风险方法和基于期望效用方法所测量的感知风险结果排序之间存在着显著差异,直接感知风险方法所得结果在总体上能更好地预测建筑企业的风险管理行为。同时,直接感知风险结果和风险评估者感知的风险影响以及不确定性存在显著的联系。根据这些结论,本文对建筑行业中的风险管理与合作提出相应的建议。Study of the relationship between perceived risk measures and managerial input of engineering projects is of vital value for both practice and theory.Based on a review of the main measures for perceived risk in the construction industry,an empirical study was designed to explore such issue.With data collected from questionnaires,the results show that the risk rank orders obtained by the direct perceived risk measurement and expected utility based measurement,respectively,are significantly different.The rated outcomes obtained by the former can be adopted as a better predictive indicator for the practical managerial input than the latter,as well as for the perceived impact and uncertainty of risk factor.Based on these conclusions,suggestions are presented for better risk management and cooperation in the construction industry.

关 键 词：风险管理 项目 感知风险 管理投入 建筑企业 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]