鄱阳湖流域经济增长与氮磷排放关系  

Relationships between Economic Growth and Emissions of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Poyang Lake Basin

作　　者：刘润润[1] 邓祥征[2] 金琴[3] 郑新奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学土地科学技术学院(北京),北京100083 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国地质大学数学与物理学院(武汉),武汉430074

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第11期2169-2174,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(编号:2009ZX07106007)

摘　　要：水体富营养化已成为全球关注的环境问题之一。研究经济增长与水体富营养化的关系对保障经济增长的同时实现水环境保护的目标具有重要的决策支持价值。本文以鄱阳湖流域为案例区,利用1978年-2008年人均GDP与鄱阳湖水体中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)数据,构建了经济增长与环境质量之间的回归模型,分析了鄱阳湖水体TN、TP浓度随人均GDP增长的变化趋势及原因。研究表明,鄱阳湖流域经济增长与氮磷排放的关系具有库兹涅斯曲线(EKC曲线)特征。鄱阳湖水体中TN、TP浓度随经济增长而增加或减少的变化转折点分别位于人均GDP为8600元/人、7400元/人(以1977年为基期计算)时。目前,由于产业结构优化、新的经济增长点的出现与环境政策的影响,鄱阳湖流域的氮磷排放量已出现下降趋势,但为保持鄱阳湖水质的持续改善,鄱阳湖流域需要进一步优化产业结构,控制氮磷排放,实现经济与生态的协调发展。Eutrophication has become one of global environment problems. As the largest freshwater lake in China and an important wetland ecosystem in the world, the Poyang Lake basin has been experiencing a continuous economic growth since the reform and opening-up policy. Meanwhile, the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in Poyang Lake has been increasing. Negative effects of water eutrophication on economic development are becoming prominent. Investigating relationships between economic growth and eutrophication is therefore of importance to coordinate economic development and water environment protection. This study examined the Poyang Lake basin based on time series economic and environmental data during the period 1978-2008, constructed a regression model depicting the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality （EGEQ）, and made Ordinary Least Squares （OLS） regression estimates for the developed model, the linear model, and the quadratic curve model. The dynamic relationship between economic development and emissions of total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorus （TP） in the Poyang Lake Basin was subsequently examined. The relationship of economic growth and TN and TP emissions in the Poyang Lake basin was found to be of characteristics of the Environment Kuznet Curve （EKC）. When GDP reaches 8600 Yuan per capita, the concentration of TN starts to reduce with further growing economy. It was found that the concentration of TP shifts from increasing with economic growth to decreasing with economic growth when GDP reaches 7400 Yuan per capita. At present, due to the combined effect of improvement of the industrial structure, new economic growth, and impact of environmental policy, the emissions of TN and TP tend to reduce in the Poyang Lake basin, i.e., economic growth has entered a stage of coordination with the emissions of TN and TP. However, the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus is still relatively high. To improve the water quality of Poyang Lake, people who live in th

关 键 词：环境库兹涅斯曲线 经济增长 氮磷排放 水体富营养化 鄱阳湖 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]