安徽省能源消费碳排放足迹的动态变化及因素分解  

Dynamic change and factor decomposition of carbon footprint of energy consumption in Anhui Province

作　　者：付金沐[1] 李琦[1] 储国定[2] 陈啸吟[1] 

机构地区：[1]宿州学院地球科学与工程学院,安徽宿州234000 [2]铜陵学院,安徽铜陵244000

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第11期1726-1730,共5页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(08BJY074));安徽省教育厅自然科学基金重点资助项目(KJ2010A316);安徽省教育厅人文社科基金资助项目(2008SK289)

摘　　要：文章采用生态足迹模型与因素分解分析模型,定量分析了1995—2008年安徽省能源消费碳排放足迹的变动趋势、生态效应以及影响因素。结果表明:近15a安徽省碳排放足迹呈上升态势,煤炭足迹在其中占主导地位;碳足迹强度呈幂指数衰减,而碳足迹生态压力不断上升,说明碳排放对自然生态系统的压力逐渐增大。因素分解结果显示,经济增长效应是近些年安徽省碳足迹增加的主要因素,能源强度效应是抑制碳足迹增长的主要原因,而人口效应和结构效应对碳排放的贡献不大。In this paper, the dynamic change, ecological effect and influencing factors of carbon footprint of energy consumption in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2008 are analyzed by ecological footprint model and factor decomposition model. The results show that during the past fifteen years, carbon footprint in Anhui Province is on the rise with coal footprint in the majority. An exponential decreasing trend is observed for carbon footprint intensity, whereas the ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint is increasing, implying that the pressure of carbon emission on natural ecological system is enhancing. According to the results of factor decomposition, the economic growth and the energy intensity effect are main reasons for increasing and restraining the carbon footprint respectively. The effects of population and structure on the carbon emission are limited.

关 键 词：安徽省 碳排放足迹 动态变化 因素分解 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]