城市出租汽车保有量预测分析  

The Study of Prediction Model of Taxi Quantity of the City

作　　者：周进均[1] 赵圆[1] 龙东华[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《交通科技与经济》2011年第6期27-31,85,共6页Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications

摘　　要：分析影响出租车分担率的因素,选择出影响分担率的主要因子,把主要因子作为多元线性回归模型中的自变量,得出分担率预测模型,然后基于分担率预测模型得出基于供需平衡的出租车保有量预测模型。最后以重庆市为例,运用SPSS软件作线性回归分析,利用模型预测出2015年重庆主城区出租车的分担率,将分担率代入供需平衡模型,预测出2015年重庆主城区出租车的合理保有量。The influence factors of the ownership of the taxi is analyzed,then the main factors of affecting the taxi-sharing rate is choosed,using the main factors of affecting the taxi-sharing rate as the independent variables to get the prediction model,then based on the taxi-sharing rate,prediction model of taxi quantity based on supply and demand balance is proposed.At last,taking Chongqing as an example,by using the model to predict the share of Chongqing city taxi rates in 2015,then according to the supply and demand balance model to predict the reasonable number of Chongqing city taxi in 2015.

关 键 词：出租车 保有量 多元线性回归分析 供需平衡 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]