基于综合定权法的中国玉米综合灾害风险评价  

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF CHINESE CORN BASED ON INTEGRATED INDICES-WEIGHING METHOD

作　　者：雷永登[1,2] 史秦青[3,4] 王静爱[1,2,4] 赵金涛[1,2] 胡国芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学区域地理研究重点实验室,北京100875 [3]美国马里兰大学地理学系 [4]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第5期522-527,共6页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171402);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAK50B07)

摘　　要：基于AHP层次分析法、PCA偏相关分析法、BP神经网络法等多种赋权法的对比分析,提出了一种将定性分析和定量计算有效融合的多指标综合定权模型IW.据此评价了中国各省(市、区)玉米的综合灾害风险,并绘制了中国玉米综合自然灾害风险等级图.结果表明,使用IW综合定权模型能够得到更加合理、精确的指标权重,据此绘制的风险评价图不仅能够很好反映中国玉米种植风险的地域分异规律,而且具有良好的解释性.IW,a new weighing method,was proposed,based on comparative analysis of commonly used weighing methods of AHP,PCA and BP.This new method combined qualitative analysis with quantitative calculation and was applied to integrated agricultural disaster risk assessment of corn in China.Results demonstrated that IW could generate more accurate and rational index weights.Map of integrated disaster risk of corn drawn by this method could clearly indicate the spatial feature of risk and was easy to explain.It can be a new approach for integrated disaster risk assessment and other relevant multi-factors assessments.

关 键 词：综合风险评价 指标定权 AHP层次分析 BP神经网络 PCA偏相关分析 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学]