国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展  

Advances in the Research Methods of Abrupt Changes of Hydrologic Sequences and Their Applications in Drainage Basins in China

作　　者：周园园[1,2] 师长兴[1] 范小黎[1,2] 杜俊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2011年第11期1361-1369,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB428404)

摘　　要：变异点识别在区分气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响中具有十分重要的作用。近几十年来,国内水文序列变异点的研究逐渐发展,从最早的使用单一方法发展到由多种方法组成的水文序列变异点诊断系统和对部分方法的改进。同时,各种方法在中国各主要流域得到广泛应用,但是使用的方法不同,水文序列时间年限不同,得到的变异点的结果也不完全一致。本文将目前普遍采用的方法及在各流域的应用成果进行了系统总结,为今后水文序列变异点的方法改进及其在流域中的应用发展提供参考。Detecting abrupt changes in hydrologic sequences plays an important role in discriminating the impacts of climate change and human activities. In recent decades, researches on abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences have advanced greatly in China from using only one method in the earliest stage to applying diagnosis system of multiple methods and improved methods in the study in the late stage. Different results were given by studies using different methods and/or different time series of hydrologic sequences in the same drainage basins. In this paper, the theories of methods determining abrupt changes in hydrologic sequences and their application in the main watersheds in China are reviewed in order to provide reference for further development of these methods and their applications.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 变异点识别 水文序列检验 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]