汇率的稳定性与最优货币政策  

On the Exchange Rate Stability and the Optimal Monetary Policies

作　　者：黄炎龙[1] 陈伟忠[1] 龚六堂[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济管理学院,上海200092 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第11期1-17,共17页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文建立小型开放经济模型,研究在Ramsey最优均衡下汇率稳定性与最优货币政策之间关系。分析表明:汇率的波动与宏观经济波动之间的关系依赖于货币政策所选择的汇率政策体制,在Ramsey均衡下,有管理的浮动汇率政策有益于经济实现内外部市场均衡,而为了确保汇率的稳定性,最优货币政策能够使用较竞争性均衡更低的利率获得更高的产出和更低的通胀水平,维持汇率的稳定对货币政策并不形成压力;最优货币政策在保持汇率稳定的同时,依然面临汇率稳定与本国市场目标之间的冲突,即内部和外部市场波动性存在难以平衡的问题。分析还表明,当汇率处于区间内的贬值和升值波动过程中,最优货币政策不受约束地执行内外部市场均衡。This paper establishes a small open economy model to study the relationships between the exchange rate stability and the optimal monetary policies. The study shows that the relation between the volatility of exchange rate and macro economy depends on the regime that government chooses. The managed floating exchange rate exerts a significant influence on the international equilibrium, and the government can use the policy with the low interest rate to attain the higher output and low inflation, which can not shock the domestic monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy confronts with dilemma between domestic and foreign markets. Also, the results show that optimal monetary policy has no constraint from international equilibrium, when the exchange rate faces depreciating or appreciating.

关 键 词：开放经济 汇率目标 货币政策 Ramsey均衡 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F830.7F820