金融冲击 需求拉动:房价与地价因果关系研究  

作　　者：徐美茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国银行业监督管理委员会广东监管局,广东广州510117

出　　处：《浙江金融》2011年第10期30-34,共5页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：房价与地价的关系始终是困扰我国理论界和决策层的一个重要问题。通过对供求关系及地租理论的讨论,本文指出地价只能是房价的结果而非原因。通过基于VAR框架的Granger因果分析和脉冲响应分析再一次表明了这一点,而过于宽松的金融环境则是造成近年来房价过快上涨的重要原因。因此,我国应继续采取稳健的货币政策,进一步做好规范土地管理等深层次市场化改革,从根本上确保我国房地产市场取得长远、健康的发展。The relationship between housing price and land price has always been an important topic puzzling the academia and policy makers. With the exploration of supply-demand mechanism and the land-rent theory, the paper indicates that the price of land is the result, instead of the cause of housing price. The analysis based on Granger causality test and impulse-response technique further illustrates the point. With the over-relaxed financial conditions being an important reason for the too fast a rise in the housing price, the policy suggestion will naturally come as maintaining the prudent monetary policy and further promoting the reform in market mechanism, for instance, improving the regulations of land management, thus ensuring a sustained, stable and healthy development of China＇ s real estate market fundamentally.

关 键 词：房价 地价 VAR GRANGER因果分析 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]