Typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria——A double layer nested multi-objective probability model and its application  

作　　者：LIU DeFu PANG Liang XIE BoTao WU YuanKang 

机构地区：[1]Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China [2]College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China [3]Hydrographic Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310009,China

出　　处：《Science China(Technological Sciences)》2008年第7期1038-1048,共11页中国科学（技术科学英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50679076);the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters of China (Grant No. 20060120)

摘　　要：For prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters in China, in this paper a double layer nested multi-objective probability model of typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria is proposed. The multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD) is used to predict the joint probability of seven typhoon characteristics and corresponding typhoon induced disasters. Predicted results can be used for both typhoon disaster zoning and corresponding prevention criteria along China coast.For prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters in China, in this paper a double layer nested multi-objective probability model of typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria is proposed. The multivariate compound extreme value distribution (MCEVD) is used to predict the joint probability of seven typhoon characteristics and corresponding typhoon induced disasters. Predicted results can be used for both typhoon disaster zoning and corresponding prevention criteria along China coast.

关 键 词：TYPHOON DISASTER ZONING PREVENTION CRITERIA MULTIVARIATE compound extreme value distribution stochastic simulation joint probability prediction 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]