我国城镇居民汽车拥有率组合预测——基于收入等级  

Integrated Forecast on Car Ownership Rate of Urban Dwellers in China:Based on Different Income Levels

作　　者：鲍叶静[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学实验学院,北京101101

出　　处：《技术经济》2011年第3期87-90,共4页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：北京工业大学青年基金资助项目(X1024000201004)

摘　　要：基于Gompertz模型,分析预测了2015年和2020年我国城镇居民汽车拥有率以及不同收入水平居民的汽车拥有率发展出现拐点的时间及其对应的人均可支配收入。考虑了居民收入不均衡性对汽车拥有率总体水平的影响,以我国城镇家庭人均可支配收入作为划分不同收入等级的指标,分别对不同收入水平的城镇居民的汽车拥有率进行了预测,然后结合人口比重得到城镇居民家用汽车拥有率。实证结果表明,基于收入等级对城镇居民汽车拥有率进行组合预测所得结果的预测精度更高。Based on the Gompertz model,this paper analyses and forecasts car ownership rate of China＇s urban dwellers in 2015 and 2020 and the time and the per capita disposable income when the inflection point of car ownership rate taking place according to residents in different income levels.The urban residents are divided into several groups with different income levels.The nonlinear relationship between car ownership and per disposable income is analyzed respectively using the Gompertz model.And the forecast of car ownership is obtained by integrating all forecasts for different groups.The forecast results show that the integrated forecast can improve the prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：人均可支配收入 汽车拥有率 汽车产业 汽车需求 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济] F224