地震“孤波”理论及其在地震预报中的应用  

THE THEORY OF SOLITARY WAVE AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：罗兰格[1] 孙佩卿[1] 王秀英[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,中国石家庄050021

出　　处：《地震》1995年第S1期101-109,共9页Earthquake

基　　金：国家地震局85-04-02-04课题的一部分

摘　　要：根据船在水中运动时产生“孤波”的现象,利用地震动力学方程,推导出地震“孤波”,并给出了地震“孤波”的数学表达式。将原只有时间、地点、震级三要素的地震目录增加每个地震的破裂面方向,构成具有四要素的地震目录。作者在华北地区(33—43°N,110—125°E),利用1a内3.0级以上地震所形成的地震“孤波”应变场,预报下一季度4.5级以上地震的主要活动地区,通过1971—1994年96个季度的预报检验,效果较好。Based on the solitary wave phenomenon occurred when a boat moves on the water, the authors deduced the earthquake solitary wave according to the equation of earthquake dynamics. They also wrote out its mathematical expression and added each earthquake's fracture direction to the earthquake catalogue, which has only three elements (time, locality and magnitude), and now it becomes four.Using the earthquake solitary wave strain field of earthquakes with M≥ 3.0 in a year, the authors predicted the seismically active regions in North China ( 33-43°N, 110-125°E) for the next quarter. They also checked the results by using the data from 1971 to 1994, and obtained a satisfactory conclusion.

关 键 词：地震预报 综合判断 “孤波”理论 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]