基于Bayes方法的东海小黄鱼资源评析  

A stock assessment of small yellow croaker by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson model in the East China Sea

作　　者：李九奇[1] 叶昌臣[2] 王文波[2] 尹增强[1] 陈绍军[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学海洋工程学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]辽宁省海洋水产科学研究院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《上海海洋大学学报》2011年第6期873-882,共10页Journal of Shanghai Ocean University

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD09A15)

摘　　要：利用东海区渔业资源动态监测资料、采用基于Bayes方法的Pella-Tomlinson模型对东海区小黄鱼(Pseudosciaenapolyactis)渔业资源动态进行了科学评析,同时,在不同渔业政策选择下,对2004-2020年的资源量与渔获量进行了预测模拟研究。研究结果显示:东海区小黄鱼渔业资源的环境容纳量K为394 514 t;内禀增长率r为1.146;1991年的资源生物量为338 493 t、尔后持续上升到1994年的370 923 t。1994年以后又持续下降,到2003年下降到最低值111 253 t;最大持续产量(Maximum sustainable yield,MSY)为107 806 t左右;支持MSY所需的渔业资源生物量为197 503 t;支持MSY所需的捕捞努力量为441 097 6网次;当前资源量与环境容纳量K的比值为0.282,即当前资源量已不足原始资源量的30%;若2004年以后使用0.4的捕捞死亡系数,该渔业资源可以实现持续最优利用。The fish stock assessment is important groundwork for present-day fish stock management.The report presents a stock assessment of small yellow croaker in East China Sea by Bayes-based Pella-Tomlinson model,and a forecasting of biomass and catch from different fisheries policy in 2003-2020.All of the data used in this study are from the monitoring for fisheries resources in East China Sea.The research results show that the carrying capacity K is 410 281 tons and the intrinsic growth rate r is 1.129;the estimated stock biomass increased from approximately 332 654 tons in 1991 to 370 923 tons in 1994 and then declined to the minimum 131 416 tons in 2003;the estimated MSY is 110 000 tons;the estimated biomass for achieving MSY is about 200 000 tons;the estimated effort for achieving MSY is 1 373 380 nets;the stock depletion level（Bcur/K） is about 0.319,i.e.the current biomass is less than by 40 per cent of the initial biomass;if using less than 0.4 of fishing mortality after 2004,this will bring about an optimal utilization to the fishery.

关 键 词：小黄鱼 BAYES 东海 渔业资源评估 种群动态模拟 

分 类 号：S932.4[农业科学—渔业资源]