石羊河流域面雨量预报方法研究  

Study on forecast method of surface rainfall in Shiyang River Basin

作　　者：丁文魁[1,2] 杨晓玲 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省(中国气象局)干旱气候变化与减灾重点(开放)实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威733000

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2011年第5期69-73,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省气象局科研项目"石羊河流域精细面雨量预报技术和方法研究"(2207-08)

摘　　要：利用1996-2008年ECMWF数值预报格点场资料和石羊河流域内6个气象站降水资料、2007-2008年47个加密自动区域站降水资料,采用Press准则进行预报因子初选,用逐步回归方法进行预报因子精选,运用最优子集回归建立石羊河流各县区域冷、暖季1～7 d降水量预报方程。以各县区降水客观预报产品为基础,采用线性插值方法,将县区降水预报插值到各县区内的区域站点上,使用算术平均法,制作了石羊河流域1～7 d面雨量预报模式。面雨量预报模式投入业务试应用,预报能力较强,取得了较好的预报服务效果,为流域面雨量预报提供了客观有效的指导产品。Using European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts numerical forecast grid materials and precipitation materials in six weather stations from 1996 to 2008 and precipitation materials of 47 encryption automatic region stations from 2007 to 2008 in Shiyang River basin,forecast factors were initially elected with Press criterion and forecast factors were precisely selected with stepwise regression method,1 to 7 day precipitation prognostic equations of cold and warm season were built with optimal subset regression.County precipitation forecasts were interpolated to region stations as foundation of various counties precipitation objective forecasting product using linear interpolation method,1 to 7 day surface rainfall forecast pattern was manufactured with arithmetic average method in Shiyang River Basin.The surface rainfall forecast pattern was invested to service movement,of which forecast ability was stronger and good forecast service progress was made.Objective and effective instruction product was provided for the basin surface rainfall prediction.

关 键 词：ECMWF 面雨量 降雨量预报 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]