转型期中国物质生产能源消费与CO_2排放关联特征  

Characteristics of Variable Association between Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions in Material Production Sector during the Period of Economic Transition

作　　者：王强[1] 王晓文[1] 伍世代[1] 李婷婷[1] 徐玲琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350007

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2011年第11期1821-1831,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：福建师范大学地理科学学院人文地理学重点学科项目;福建省省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项项目(2011R1037-1)

摘　　要：论文利用计量经济模型,就近30 a来我国物质生产过程中能源消费与CO2排放变动关联特征进行研究,结果表明:①物质生产部门能源消费的持续增长是我国能源消费总量增长与CO2排放量增长的主要驱动因子;②物质生产部门的产业能源消费结构均衡度长期以来处于较低水平,呈现"低水平不平衡—平衡—较高水平不平衡"的变化规律;③物质生产部门能源消费-GDP脱钩弹性系数分布情况与物质生产部门CO2排放-GDP脱钩弹性系数分布情况相似,均表明目前我国物质生产对能源消费的依赖度趋低,单位能源消费的经济产出量逐渐提高,但我国物质生产部门的经济产出与能源消费的弱脱钩关系相较于发达国家的强脱钩关系之间仍存在较大差距。最后,论文针对研究结论,从物质生产部门行业结构、能源消费结构、经济增长与能源消费间脱钩关系三个角度,提出调控未来物质生产部门能源消费的建议要点。This paper,applying econometrics model method,makes an analysis on variable association between energy consumption and CO2 emissions in material production process in the recent 30 years in China.The result indicates that： 1） The growth of energy consumption of material production departments and the rising movement of CO2 emissions are affected predominantly by the energy consumption in material production process;2） the energy consumption equilibrium in material production sector has been at a low level,energy consumption always maintained a high concentration on the specific industries,but the phasic variation also existed,that reflects the phenomenon： imbalance at low level→balance at low level→imbalance at higher level;3） in material production sector,Tapio indicator of energy-GDP（TIEG） is in a cluster in the weak decoupling range,that indicates the rate of energy consumption growth is lower than the rate of economic growth largely,but the level of energy consumption efficiency still is behind the developed countries;and 4） the Tapio indicator distributions of CO2-GDP（TICG） and TIEG are very similar,but Tapio indicator of CO2-GDP（TICG） was more concentrated and decoupled.Finally,the paper puts forward the next direction and priority of the future work.

关 键 词：物质生产 能源消费 二氧化碳 关联特征 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]