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机构地区:[1]四川省气候中心,成都610071
出 处:《自然资源学报》2011年第11期1918-1929,共12页Journal of Natural Resources
基 金:国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B06);中国气象局项目"西南区域气候变化评估报告";四川省应用技术研究与开发项目(2007NGY005)
摘 要:利用四川1961—2009年141个站点逐日降水资料和1998—2007年灾情资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验、复Morlet小波、Gumbel分布、信息扩散等方法,分析了7个区域5个指数的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性特点,以及重现期降水极值和洪灾损失风险的区域差异,其主要结论是:川西南山地极端降水呈显著增多增强趋势,并在1980年代初发生了突变,盆地东北部和川西高原南部也有增多增强趋势,但不显著,盆地西北部、盆地南部和川西高原北部则有减少减弱趋势,盆地中部则表现出频数增多强度减弱的变化趋势;多数区域和多数指数都存在25 a左右的长周期和6~9 a的短周期,从25 a的长周期看,目前极端降水正处于增多增强的变化过程之中;用Gumbel分布拟合的日最大降水量,其极值区位于盆周山区和高原与盆地的过渡带,3个极值中心主要位于盆地西南部、西北部和东北部,50 a一遇的日雨量在230 mm以上;盆地大部50 a一遇的洪灾损失率在38%左右,盆地东北部可达45%,广元西南部可达60%。According to the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2009 and the disaster data from 1998 to 2007 of 141 meteorological stations in Sichuan,by using those methods like climate trend rate,Mann-Kendall check,complex Morlet wave,Gumbel distribution function,information diffusion theory,we analyzed the changing trend,mutation site and cyclicity of five extreme precipitation indices in seven subregions,and the spatial variability of the extreme daily rain and the flood loss risk about 50-and 100-year repeat period,obtained the main conclusions as below: the extreme precipitation was slightly increased and enhanced,and mutations happened at the early 1980s in the mountainous region of southwest Sichuan.They were also increased and enhanced in the northeast of Sichuan Basin and south of Western Sichuan Plateau,but not significant.While the trend in northwest and south of the basin and north of Western Sichuan Plateau was decreased and weakened.The frequency of the extreme precipitation tended to increase but its intensity became weaker in the middle of the basin.The most extreme precipitation indices shown a 25-year a long period and 6-9-year short period in most regions as well.From the 25-year long period,the recent extreme precipitation is being in a process of increasing and enhancing.By Gumbel distribution function,the maximum daily precipitation was fitted,the extreme area of it was in mountain areas around the basin and in the transitional zone of the plateau and basin.Three extreme centers are located in southwest,northwest and northeast of the basin,the daily precipitation with a 50-year return period is above 230 mm.The flood loss rate with a 50-year return period is about 38% in the most regions of the basin,it can reach 45% in northeast of the basin and 60% in the southwest of Guangyuan.
分 类 号:P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
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