住房价格与中国货币政策规则  

House Prices and Monetary Policy Rules in China

作　　者：肖争艳[1,2] 彭博[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用统计研究中心 [2]中国人民大学统计学院 [3]中国农业银行

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第11期40-49,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于微观调查数据的中国货币政策理论模型和数值模拟研究”(70903070);“中国居民财产分布的理论模型和政策模拟研究”(70973129)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：住房价格高涨背景下我国货币政策的操作一直以来颇受关注。本文构建含有房产的动态随机一般均衡模型,对我国货币政策规则是否关注住房价格进行了检验。此外,本文通过数值模拟比较了将房价纳入货币政策规则与否对宏观经济波动所产生的影响。本文的主要结论有:央行在2003—2010年的实际操作中已将住房价格波动纳入修订泰勒规则中;将住房价格波动纳入货币政策规则对调控房价上涨有较好效果,但代价是调控过程中通货膨胀率的持续上升,以及产出水平和家庭消费负向偏离稳态;家庭住房贷款首付比例能够有效降低稳态水平下的住房价格。With the hiking housing prices,the enforcement of Chinese monetary policy has always attracted the most attention.In this paper,we introduce real estate into a DSGE model to testify whether the housing price is the focus of contemporary monetary policy.Also by stimulation,we compared the efforts of monetary policies between taking housing price into the monetary policy rules and not.The main conclusions of this paper are： the central bank of China had already took housing prices into modified Taylor Rules in the practice during 2003 to 2010;the modified monetary policies containing housing prices fluctuations did well in restraining house price rising but at the cost of persistent inflation and negative deviation of the output and home consumption level;the increase in down payment ratio of housing mortgage can effectively reduce the housing prices in stationary state.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 住房价格 动态随机一般均衡模型 贝叶斯估计 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]