九一一事件后国际恐怖主义活动的发展动态——基于ARMA干预模型的分析  

A Dynamic Analysis of International Terrorism after September 11:An ARMA Interrupted Model Ou Chaomin

作　　者：欧朝敏[1] 谭跃进[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2011年第12期126-134,159,共9页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"反恐政策效果的评估体系研究"(项目编号:10GJ451-086)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：更好地理解九一一事件后十年国际恐怖主义活动的新特征和新趋势,有助于提高现有反恐政策的效果。在理论分析的基础上,作者构建ARMA干预模型量化九一一事件后国际恐怖主义活动的发展动态,结果表明:九一一事件后国际恐怖主义活动遭受沉重打击,所导致死亡人数的增长率下降了171%;但随后迅速恢复,恐怖袭击活动所造成死亡人数的增长率每年以59%的速度增长;受各种因素的影响,国际恐怖主义活动具有周期性波动的特征。拓展研究在再次确认上述结论稳健性的同时,指出国际恐怖主义活动在九一一事件后趋向于小型化和分散化。但值得警惕的是,在经历了一段低谷之后,国际恐怖主义活动正在逐步向技术性和专业化的方向发展,所发起袭击活动的致命性提高了。针对国际恐怖主义活动的上述新动态,作者提出相应的政策建议以强化现有的反恐怖斗争。A better understanding of the new characteristics and trends of international terrorism after September 11 helps to improve the effectiveness of current counter-terrorism policies.Based on theoretical analysis,the dynamic developments of international terrorism are analyzed quantitatively by an ARMA interrupted model.The author finds that international terrorism had suffered a heavy blow after September 11 and the growth rate of deaths once decreased by 171%;however,it soon recovered and the growth rate of deaths increased by 59% each year.International terrorism has fluctuated periodically due to some reasons.What's more,further research not only supports the robust of these results once again,but also shows that international terrorism tends to be decentralizing and miniaturizing.Nevertheless,it should be noted that international terrorism now gradually develops with high technology,more specialization and more fatalities.Finally,the author put forward appropriate policy suggestions to strengthen the existing anti-terrorism struggle.

关 键 词：九一一事件 国际恐怖主义 发展动态 ARMA干预模型 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]