“无项目”情况下铁路运量预测方法研究  

Research on Railway Traffic Volume Forecast Method under "No Project" Situation

作　　者：梅志兴[1] 马保成[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学,甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州铁路局,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《铁路工程造价管理》2011年第6期19-21,29,共4页Railway Engineering Cost Management

摘　　要：在"有无对比法"当中,"无项目"情况下运输系统的变化情况,主要取决于地方政府以及相关投资主体的投资意愿和能力。此文选取国民生产总值(GDP)增长率及运输系统改造投资额占国民生产总值的比重作为自变量,用以体现投资意愿和能力,通过BP神经网络训练映射出与货运量复杂的非线性的映射关系,从而得到相应情况下铁路运量的预测值,并通过实例进行验证。In the ＂with and without comparison method＂,the transportation system changes under the situation of no project mainly depended on local government and related investment main body＇s investment willingness and ability.This article selects gross national product（GDP） growth rate and the transport system transformation investment as a share of gross domestic product as the independent variable to represent the investment willingness and ability.We mapped out the complicated nonlinear mapping relation through the BP neural network training,from which we got corresponding railway freight volume predictive value.The result was verified by practical examples.

关 键 词：无项目 有无对比法 神经网络 运量预测 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济]