公路隧道群追尾交通事故预警模型  

An Early-warning Model for Rear-end Accident Occurring in Highway Tunnel Group

作　　者：易富君[1,2] 韩直[2] 邓卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]招商局重庆交通科研设计院有限公司重庆400068

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第11期1634-1640,共7页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：西部交通建设科技项目(2008-318-740-014);国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAG13A02)

摘　　要：由于公路隧道群追尾交通事故与车辆行驶过程中的运行状态密切相关,将车辆制动距离、行驶速度、车辆类型等交通流参数作为其识别预警特征参量,结合人工免疫系统原理,构建了智能化的公路隧道群追尾交通事故预警模型,能够对车辆异常状态的发展趋势做出较为准确的判断,并给出相应事故安全级别的预警信息.最后,以西汉高速公路隧道群区段为例,运用该基于人工免疫机理的预警模型进行工程实例仿真分析,得出了不同工况下的预警事故信息,说明了预警模型的准确性和可行性,为我国高速公路隧道群区段的安全运营管理提供了重要的理论依据.Considering the close relationship between rear-end accident and the vehicle＇s travelling state in highway tunnel group,this paper takes braking distance,travelling speed and the type of vehicle as characteristic parameters for forewarning the rear-end accidents occurring in highway tunnel group.Then,on the basis of artificial immune mechanism,an early-warning model is proposed to identify and determine the tendency caused by vehicle＇s abnormal state,and some important early-warning information is given as the levels of accidents.Finally,Xihan highway tunnel group is studied as a simulation example to verify the accuracy and utility of the early-warning model.It is expected that the findings from the study can provide a significant theoretical basis for the safety operation management in highway tunnel group.

关 键 词：公路隧道群 追尾交通事故预警 人工免疫 改进否定算法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]