中国货币政策对当前宏观经济影响的测度——基于FAVAR模型的分析  

Influence of the Chinese Monetary Policy on the Current Macro-economy——Analysis with the FAVAR model

作　　者：梁向东[1] 刘兵权[1] 文林[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《长沙理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第6期68-72,共5页Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology：Social Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(08CJL019);湖南省社科基金项目(08YBA167);湖南省教育厅项目(09C108)

摘　　要：从中国宏观数据中萃取十个主因子,并结合利率和存款准备金率,采用FAVAR模型分析,我国货币政策对经济增长率、第一、二、三产业发展、固定资产投资、外商直接投资、进出口额等变量有不同的影响。面对当前的形式,我国政府要有所侧重地考虑货币政策的运用。On the basis of the FAVAR model,the analysis of interest rate,deposit reserve and the ten principal components of the Chinese macro-economic statistics indicates that the monetary policy of China has different effects upon the rate of GDP growth,the development of primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry,fixed asset investment,FDI and total value of import/export.In the face of current economic situation,the government of China should emphasize particularly on management of monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币政策 宏观经济 FAVAR模型 主成分分析法 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]