基于突变理论的灌区水资源开发利用状况综合评价  

A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resources Utilization in Irrigation Districts Based on the Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：王富强[1] 刘中培[1] 杨松林 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院,郑州450011 [2]河南省农田水利水土保持技术推广站,郑州450003

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2011年第12期19-21,25,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51009065);河南省重点科技攻关计划项目(112102110033);河南省教育厅自然科学研究计划项目(2011B170006)

摘　　要：在灌区水资源开发利用状况评价中,评价指标体系的建立和评价因素权重的确定非常重要。针对评价因素权重确定中的困难,把突变理论运用到灌区水资源开发利用状况评价中,利用突变理论在多准则评价决策中的优点,避免人为确定权重的主观性。具体实施步骤是首先对多层评价目标进行分解,在将底层评价指标进行标准量化后,运用不同突变模型的归一公式进行计算,从而得到水资源开发利用状况突变级数值,实现对灌区水资源开发利用状况的综合评判。实例分析表明,该评价方法是合理、可行的,相对于以往评价方法,突变理论评价法无需确定指标权重,减少人为主观因素,且计算简便,为灌区水资源开发利用状况评价提供了新的思路。In the comprehensive assessment of water resources utilization in irrigation districts, the establishment of assessment system and the determination of weights are both important and difficult. Based on the difficulty in defining weight values, the catastrophe theory is used in the comprehensive assessment, and the advantage of catastrophe theory in the multi-rule assessment is used to a- void the subjectivity of artificial weights. The concrete steps of practice are to analyze the multi-layer assessment object first. After standard quantizing of bottom assessment index, the ultimate catastrophe function is obtained through quantitative computing by the normalization formula of different catastrophe models, and thus the comprehensive assessment of water resources utilization in irrigation districts is realized. The proposed method is conducive to calculation and does not necessarily define the weight of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized. The assessment results indicate that the new assessment method is reasonable and feasible, and it provides a new idea for water resources utilization in irrigation districts.

关 键 词：突变理论 水资源开发利用 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]