考虑组织因素的液化天然气泄漏安全评价方法  

Safety Assessment Method for LNG Leak with Consideration on Organizational Factors

作　　者：马维林[1] 余建星[1] 柴松[1] 晋文超[1] 杨源[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,港口与海洋工程教育部、天津市重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第10期89-94,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助(51021004);国家科技重大专项资助项目(2008ZX05026-006);上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室研究基金资助

摘　　要：为考虑组织因素对于人因失误发生的根本性影响,提出一种以贝叶斯网络(BN)为工具的人因风险分析方法,并用于液化天然气泄漏的安全评价。先将认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)的共同绩效条件(CPC)分成3层,即组织层、技术系统层和个人层。以BN为工具,利用其因果推理和诊断推理的功能,进行人因失误预测和追溯的双向分析。将考虑组织因素的人员操作失误概率引入浮式液化天然气船(FLNGV)装卸过程LNG泄漏的BN中,进行LNG泄漏的安全评价以及事故原因的重要度分析。结果表明,"执行"失误是LNG泄漏最主要的事故原因,而个人层的CPC会对执行失误产生较大的影响。In order to introduce the fundamental influence of organizational factors on the occurrence of human errors, a methodology for human risk analysis was used for safety assessment of LNG leak with the tool of BN. Firstly, common performance conditions of CREAM were divided into three levels including organizational level, technological level and individual level. Secondly, using causal inference and diagnosis reasoning function of BN, human error predictive and retrospective analysis was carried out. Finally, safe- ty assessment and causal importance degree analysis of LNG-leak were conducted by incorporating the human operating error probability with organizational factors into BN of LNG Leak in the process of FLNG （Floating Liquefied Natural Gas Vessel） loading. The results show that human executive error is the main cause of the LNG leak accident, and the CPCs of individual level have a greater effect on human executive error.

关 键 词：组织因素 共同绩效条件(CPC) 液化天然气(LNG)泄漏 贝叶斯网络(BN) 原因追溯性分析 安全评价 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]