基于随机响应面法的电力系统仿真不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis Based on Stochastic Response Surface Method in Power System Simulation

作　　者：韩冬[1] 马进[2] 贺仁睦[2] 郭润睿[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院电工研究所,北京市100190 [2]电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室,华北电力大学,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2011年第24期12-16,52,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：电力系统及发电设备安全控制和仿真国家重点实验室开放项目(SKLD09KM04);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51077049,51007086);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20070079014);北京市科技新星计划;高等学校学科创新引智计划(“111计划”)(B08013)~~

摘　　要：随机响应面法可克服传统方法仿真次数多、时间长的缺陷,仅需少量次数仿真便可快速估计出响应的不确定度。但由于电力系统的复杂性和强非线性,随机响应面法用于电力系统仿真仍有若干问题值得深入探讨。为使随机响应面法得到更广泛的应用,文中以蒙特卡洛模拟作为参照,详细探讨了配置点选取、参数服从经验概率分布或参数具有相关性时的不确定度等问题。此外,结合轨迹灵敏度法提出了多参数不确定性分析的策略,可大大减少用于不确定性分析的输入参数个数。算例分析表明了随机响应面法的有效性和适用性。Despite the advantage of stochastic response surface method （SRSM） in overcoming the drawback of repeated simulation required by the conventional method by quickly estimating response uncertainty with only small amounts of simulation, it is worth further investigation for application in power system simulation because of the system＇s complexity and characteristics of multi-dimensionality and strong nonlinearity. In order to enable the SRSM to find even wider application, by referring to the Monte Carlo simulation, an in depth analysis is made of such problems as the selection of collocation points, parameter distribution in obeisance to empirical probability or the uncertainty when random inputs are correlated. In addition, by consulting the trajectory sensitivity method, a parameter uncertainty analyzing strategy capable of dramatic reduction in the number of uncertain inputs is proposed. The efficiency and validity of the SRSM are shown by case study results.

关 键 词：随机响应面法 轨迹灵敏度法 不确定性分析 累积分布函数 蒙特卡洛法 电力系统仿真 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]