基于PLS的大型客机价格预测研究  

Research on the cost forecast of civil transports based on partial least squares regression

作　　者：李占科[1] 符金风[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《飞行力学》2011年第6期81-83,88,共4页Flight Dynamics

摘　　要：大型客机的定价是否合理直接关系到其市场占有量和能否取得商业成功。以波音和空客干线飞机的相关数据和价格为样本,基于偏最小二乘回归分析法(Partial Least Squares,PLS)建立了大型客机的价格预测模型。利用该价格预测模型,结合等工程价值比修正,对国产大型客机C919的价格进行了预测,并对上市时间和产量对价格的影响分别进行了计算分析,给出了价格随时间和产量的变化趋势。对C919的上市时间、产量和定价等决策问题具有一定的指导意义和参考价值。The price determination of civil transports is directly related to its market share and commercial success.Based on the correlative sample data of Boeing and Airbus civil transports,a Price Prediction Model is presented in this paper,using Partial Least Square（PLS） regression method.The price prediction of the domestic C919 is made by the presented model,and is modified by an Equal-Engineering Value Rate method.Also,the Time Value of Cost and outputs influence on the price determination are analyzed.The research results in this paper are of considerable guiding significance and reference value for the price determination of the C919.

关 键 词：偏最小二乘回归法 价格预测模型 等工程价值比 

分 类 号：V221.1[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]