江苏省城市碳排放核算及减排潜力分析  

Analysis of Urban Carbon Reducing Pressure and Potential of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：黄金碧[1,2] 黄贤金[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游学系,江苏南京210093 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《生态经济》2012年第1期49-53,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业基金项目(200811033);江苏省环保科技项目(2009037);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2010DAXM008)

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下,低碳城市成为低碳发展的重点领域。在系统测算1995～2007年江苏省城市碳排放的基础上,分析江苏省城市碳排放强度;运用灰色预测方法预测2008～2020年江苏省城市碳排放强度;并结合国家碳减排目标分析碳减排压力,通过与北京等地区城市比较,分析江苏省城市碳减排潜力,提出江苏省城市低碳发展的对策措施。研究表明,江苏省城市碳排放总体呈不断上升的趋势,2007年比1995年增长123.92%;碳排放强度总体呈下降态势,由1995年的每吨1.597万元降到2007年的每吨0.789万元;2008～2020年碳排放强度将不断降低,降幅可达53.74%,碳减排压力较小;江苏省城市碳减排潜力较大,通过优化能源结构,调整产业结构和提高能源利用效率,可减少碳排放31.86%;江苏省城市应采取保护城市生态空间,开发低碳能源,发展创新型经济,加强城市统筹协作,合理利用土地和构建智慧城市等措施,促进城市低碳发展。In the context of global climate change, low-carbon city has become the focus of low-carbon development. This paper systematically estimates urban carbon emission of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2007, and then calculates the carbon emission intensity. Then on the basis of the national carbon reducing targets, the paper analyzes carbon reducing pressure of Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2020 by gray prediction method. Also, it analyzes the level of urban low-carbon development and carbon reducing potential of Jiangsu Province by comparing with Beijing City and other regional cities. At last, it puts forward some countermeasures to promote low-carbon city in Jiangsu Province. The results show that carbon emission of energy consumption predominate the gross of urban carbon emission. The overall urban carbon emission of Jiangsu Province is in an upward trend, and it reached 153.34 million tons in 2007, compared with an increase of 123.92 percent in 1995. Urban carbon emission intensity is in a downward trend, reduced to 0.789 tons per million in 2007 from 1.597 tons per million in 1995. And it will continue to reduce from 2008 to 2020, so urban carbon reducing pressure of Jiangsu Province is relatively low. The potential for urban carbon reduction of Jiangsu Province is great. By optimizing energy structure, adjusting the industrial structure and improving energy efficiency, carbon emissions can be reduced by 31.86%. In order to promote urban low-carbon development, Jiangsu Province need to strengthen the green, develop low-carbon energy, develop innovation-based economy, strengthen city overall coordination, use land rationally and construct intelligent cities.

关 键 词：碳减排 压力 潜力 城市 江苏 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]