运用灰色理论预测隧道变形的探讨  

On Grey Theory to Predict Tunnel Deformation

作　　者：毕卫国[1] 田岗[1] 张耀庆[2] 杨绍山[1] 孔祥洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省土木工程防灾减灾重点实验室(山东科技大学),青岛266590 [2]北京工业大学,北京100124

出　　处：《现代隧道技术》2011年第6期53-57,共5页Modern Tunnelling Technology

摘　　要：隧道变形监测对于隧道的安全有着重要的作用。运用灰色理论GM模型对其变形数据进行预测分析,发现灰色理论对隧道的变形有一定的预测效果,同时了解到不同样本数据其预测精度存在差异。为此,提出使用二次拟合参数法对其进行改进,得出二次拟合参数法对低精度的预测模型有一定的改进效果,而对于较高精度的预测模型效果并不显著。Tunnel deformation monitoring plays an important role in ensuring tunnel safety. For this study, collected deformation data were analyzed and predictions were established using the grey theory GM model; it was found that grey theory has certain predictive effects on tunnel deformations. It was also discovered that there are some differences in the prediction accuracy of different sample data. Therefore, the quadric parameter fitting method was proposed to improve these differences, and the results indicate that this method improves lowaccuracy prediction models, hut is not so significant for high-accuracy prediction models.

关 键 词：隧道变形 灰色模型 最小二乘法 精度检验 

分 类 号：U451.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]