不确定条件下开行固定车组重量分组列车适用条件研究  

Research on Applicable Operation Conditions of Multi-block Train with Fixed Weight under Uncertainty

作　　者：陈崇双[1] 王慈光[1] 杨运贵[2] 薛锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]中国民航飞行学院空中交通管理学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《铁道学报》2011年第12期1-8,共8页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：西南交通大学博士研究生创新基金

摘　　要：分组列车与单组列车是我国车流组织的两种形式,二者互有利弊,对其开行适用条件研究具有理论价值和现实意义。根据固定车组重量分组列车集结的动态特性和车组到达的不确定性,将车组的车数和间隔时间都视为随机变量,应用随机过程理论,解析其在编成站和途中换挂站的集结耗费相对于单组列车的节省和额外消耗,以一昼夜所产生的总净节省的数学期望作为其综合效益的度量,给出分组列车合理开行的判别式和更易判定的必要条件。针对模型的特点,应用离散事件系统仿真方法进行模拟。仿真算例表明:判定条件的吻合率为97.36%,必要条件的失真率为4.52%;其综合效益受到车组平均车数和平均间隔时间参数影响且前者灵敏程度更高;适用于车流量较小且车流到达强度之比接近固定车组重量之比情形。The multi-block train（group train） and one-block train（single-group train） are the two modes of car flow organization in our country and they both have their own advantages and disadvantages.The research on their applicable operating conditions is of theoretical and practical significance.Basing on the uncertainty of arrival and dynamic assembling characteristics of the multi-block train with fixed weight,taking the number and interval time of cars as random variables and applying the theory of random process,the aggregation costs of the multi-block train occurring at the formation station and intermediate compling-change stations were compared with the one-block train to obtain the relative saved costs and additional expenditures.Taking the expectation of the total net savings of night and day as the measurement of the comprehensive benefit,the discriminant and more easily judged necessary conditions essential to running of the multi-block train were given.In view of the characteristics of the model,simulation was made with the discrete event system simulation（DESS） method.The emulational example shows as follows：The coincidence rate of the discrimination conditions is 97.36% and the distortion rate of the necessary conditions is 4.52%;the comprehensive benefit of the multi-block train is affected by the average number and average interval time of cars joint＇y,the former being more sensitive than the latter;the multi-block train is suitabe to run in the situation when wagon flow is low and the ratio of the arrival intensity and the ratio of the fixed weight approach each other approximately.

关 键 词：固定车组重量分组列车 适用条件 不确定性 随机过程 离散事件系统仿真 

分 类 号：U292.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]