基于证据理论的城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策  

Type Selection Decision of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：赵淑芝[1] 曹阳[1] 田庆飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学交通学院,吉林长春130025

出　　处：《铁道学报》2011年第12期15-20,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51078168)

摘　　要：介绍D-S证据理论的推理方法和组合规则。针对D-S证据理论方法不能对冲突证据进行组合的局限性,探讨适用于城市轨道交通系统型式选择问题的组合规则,给出通过基本概率赋值转移预处理后再组合的冲突证据组合方法。基于D-S证据理论的推理方法建立城市轨道交通系统型式选择决策模型,并应用文中提出的冲突证据组合方法进行求解。最后结合国内已建成轨道交通系统城市的7项指标,对济南市城市轨道交通系统型式选择进行融合决策,经检验证明该模型对城市轨道交通系统型式选择具有辅助决策作用。The reasoning method and combination rules of the D-S evidence theory are introduced.Because of the limitation that the D-S evidence theory can not make up the conflicting evidence,this paper discusses the combination rules of urban rail transit system type selection and proposes the method of conflicting evidence combination applied after transfer pretreatment of basic probability assignment.The type selection decision model of the urban rail transit system is developed on the basis of the D-S evidence theory and is solved with the conflicting evidence combination method.Combining with seven selected indexes of city,which describe the cities with constructed urban rail transit systems,fusion decision is made for type selection of the urban rail transit system of Jinan.The result shows that the model can play the role of support for type selection decision of urban rail transit systems.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 系统型式选择 D-S证据理论 冲突证据组合 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]