中国能源消耗碳排放的影响因素分析及政策启示  

Influential Factors and Policy Implications of Carbon Emissions for Energy Consumption in China

作　　者：许士春[1] 习蓉[1] 何正霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州221116 [2]徐州师范大学经济学院,徐州221009

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第1期2-12,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目:"完善节能减排长效机制的环境政策研究"(编号:10CJY028);国家自然科学基金面上项目:"资源型城市产业转型研究:基于城市能力驱动的视角"(编号:70973121);江苏省研究生创新项目:"我国碳减排的影响因素与目标实现政策研究"(编号:CXZZ11-0319);江苏省"青蓝工程"优秀青年骨干教师培养项目(2010年);中央高校专项基金项目(编号:JGJ101470);徐州市软科"低碳城市评价及发展路径研究"(编号:XF11C116)

摘　　要：运用LMDI加和分解法,从我国整体、不同行业、工业内不同部门的角度探讨我国碳排放的影响因素。研究发现:整体上,我国碳排放的主要驱动因素是经济产出效应,对碳排放的整体贡献为148.49%;其次是人口规模效应,整体贡献为9.65%;最后是能源结构效应,整体贡献为1.36%;我国碳排放的主要抑制因素是能源强度效应,对碳排放的整体贡献为-53.43%;产业结构效应有抑制作用,整体贡献为-6.07%,潜力没有显现出来;从不同产业的角度研究发现,农林牧渔业、建筑业整体上"低碳"发展状态较好,工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、批发零售业和住宿餐饮业、其他行业"低碳"发展状态不佳;我国碳排放的主要来源是工业,通过工业内不同行业的比较发现,电力蒸汽及水生产供应业、石油加工及炼焦业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、非金属矿物制品业等行业是我国碳排放的来源。对此,从能源利用效率、能源结构、产业结构、经济增长方式等方面提出相应的政策启示。With rapid growth of economy in China,a series of problems associated with resources and the environment have emerged.In this paper,a decomposition model based on the extended Kaya equation was established.The LMDI addition approach was applied to examine the influential factors of carbon emissions in China based on different industries and different sectors within an industry from 1995 to 2009.Impacts of economy output,population scale,energy structure,energy intensity,and industrial structures on carbon emissions were fully examined.Results were obtained as follows.In general,the major driver of carbon emissions was the economy output effect,whose contribution ratio reached 148.49%,followed by the population scale effect of 9.65%,and the energy structure effect of 1.36%.The major constraint was the energy intensity effect,whose contribution ratio reached-53.43%.The industry structure showed a restraining effect,whose contribution ratio reached-6.07%,but the potential has not appeared.It was found that agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery and building industry have achieved a good state of development of low carbon,whereas transportation,storage,postal industry,wholesale,retail trade,accommodation,and catering industries show a poor state.Carbon emissions come mostly from electricity power steam and water production industry,petroleum processing and coking plant industry,black metal smelting and rolling processing industry,chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry,and nonmetal mineral product industry.Policies as to carbon emissions reduction are put forward from the aspects of energy utilization efficiency,energy structure,industrial structure,as well as economy growth.Concerning current policies,firstly,our country is suggested to focus on regulating industrial structure to improve the ratio of the tertiary industry in national economy.Secondly,continued improvement in the energy utilization efficiency is strongly encouraged so as to reduce the overall energy intensity.For

关 键 词：能源消耗 碳减排 影响因素 LMDI 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]