自动站资料在WRF 3DVAR中的同化敏感性试验  

Assimilation Sensitivity Experiment of Automatic Observation Stations in WRF 3DVAR

作　　者：张利红[1] 陶士伟[2] 何光碧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [2]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2011年第4期29-35,共7页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：中国气象局成都高原所基本科研业务费专项(批准号:BROP201117);西南区域重大项目"西南区域数值预报模式发展与业务建设"和行业专项"GRAPES中尺度模式的预报和改进"

摘　　要：为了了解国家级地面自动观测站不同观测要素对数值预报作用,利用WRF三维变分同化系统对自动站资料的不同观测要素开展同化&预报试验。两个月的数值预报检验结果表明:1)只同化自动站温度观测对位势高度、温度和相对湿度场预报的影响作用最大,且主要为负作用,而同化气压或风向风速观测对上述要素预报影响作用比同化温度小,但会改善位势高度预报和部分温度预报,对相对湿度预报改善作用不明显;2)对于降水预报,同化风向风速方案的评分结果最差,同化温度的方案次之,同化气压的方案可以改善24h降水预报结果。由此看出用WRF 3DVAR同化地面观测资料时,气压观测十分重要,同时也说明要想用好地面观测资料,让其为数值预报提高发挥最大作用仍需开展很多研究工作。For understanding the influence of automatic observation stations on the numerical weather prediction（NWP）,four tests are carried out about different element of automatic station data in WRF 3D-Var system and WRF model.Test results of two months show that： 1） Assimilating temperature observations have obviously negative effects on geopotential height,temperature and relative humidity forecasts.Assimilating pressure or wind direction wind speed observations have small influence on the above factors,and can improve geopotential height forecast and partly temperature forecast,but no improvement to the relative humidity forecast;2） For the precipitation forecast,the TS score of assimilating wind direction wind speed is the worst,and the assimilation temperature program secondly.Assimilation pressure program can improve the 24h precipitation forecast results.The above analysis shows that when assimilating surface observations,the pressure is very important to the assimilation system whose vertical coordinate is the isobaric surface,also shows that in order to make good use of ground observations in NWP,there are a lot of research.

关 键 词：国家级地面自动观测站 WRF 3DVAR 模式预报 TS评分 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]