基于IESOM模型的中长期能源需求和碳排放情景分析  

Mid-&Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios Analysis Based on IESOM Mode

作　　者：张成龙[1] 张阿玲[2] 毕超[2] 单葆国[1] 朱发根[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国能源》2011年第12期9-13,共5页Energy of China

摘　　要：本文采用计量经济学方法、弹性系数法、能源服务强度法测算了2011～2030年能源服务需求。以能源服务需求、经济增速等作为输入变量,利用能源系统优化模型(IESOM),针对低、高两种经济情景,核算了基准、10%减排率、15%减排率三种排放情景下的能源需求、能源结构和碳排放量。研究发现:未来能源需求将持续较快增长,能源供应的压力较大,但减排可以有效减轻压力;在没有减排政策的情况下,中国制定的2020年碳排放强度目标将难以实现,只有当减排率达到15%左右的时候,才能实现既定的碳减排目标。This article uses econometrics, elasticity coefficient and energy service intensity methods to calculate the energy service demand from 2011 to 2030. And then, under slow and high economic development scenarios, IESOM model taking economic growth and energy service demands as input variables, simulates energy consumptions, energy structures and carbon emissions in the condition of baseline, 10% and 15 % emission mitigation respectively. The results show that energy demand in the future will grow more quickly and continuously, which will put more pressure on energy supply. However this pressure can be effectively relieved by carbon emission reduction. Under no emission mitigation policies, it is difficult for China to realize 2020 carbon intensity mitigation target in 2020, and when the rate of emission mitigation reaches about 15 %, it can meet the planned emission mitigation target.

关 键 词：IESOM 能源需求 碳排放 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]