水库洪水预报模型分析与设计  

Analysis and Design of Model on Flood Forecasting of Reservoir

作　　者：盖绍婷[1] 李海涛[1] 唐功友[1] 刘海林[1] 于浩[1] 唐丽娜[1] 王沛栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（工程技术版）》2011年第4期29-33,38,共6页Journal of Qingdao University(Engineering & Technology Edition)

基　　金：山东省科技发展计划项目(2009GG10008013)

摘　　要：为了建立一套完备的洪水预报模型并应用于实际水库的洪水预报工作,以莱西产芝水库为例,应用水库的实际测量数据,建立了水库洪水预报模型和预报系统,并对模型进行了计算机模拟。仿真结果表明,产芝水库各个时间点的预测数值与实际数值的绝对误差和相对误差都很小,其中一组洪水预测数据平均绝对误差为0.13%,平均相对误差为1.44%。说明所提出的模型准确性和精度较高,具有实际应用的价值。In order to establish a complete set of flood forecast model and its application in actual reservoir flood forecast. This paper takes Laixi Chanzhi Reservoir as an example, the general situation of reservoir is introduced using the actual measured data, and the flood forecasting model and flood forecast system of the reservoir are presented. The essential parts of the model are analyzed and the computer simulation of the model is done. The mean absolute error of data of the flood forecast model is 0.13%, and the mean Relative error of data of the flood forecast model is 1.44 %. The simulation results demonstrate that the mlodel is of high accuracy and precision,and it will be of very high actual application value.

关 键 词：水库 洪水预报 计算机模拟 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]