京、津、冀地区的碳排放趋势估计  

Prediction on Beijing's,Tianjin's and Hebei's Carbon Emission

作　　者：王铮[1,2] 刘晓[1] 朱永彬[2] 黄蕊[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2012年第1期84-89,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国碳减排的区域配额公平理论与可行性分析"(41071089);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项"应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题"(XDA011505);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx1-yw-Q1-09)

摘　　要：通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。In this paper, dynamic model is used to predict energy, cement carbon emissions and forest carbon sink in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province from 2009 to 2050. First of all, the carbon emissions of energy and carbon emissions of cement are estimated, then the forest carbon sinks are taken into carbon account of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province. Secondly, the spatial patterns of carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province are analyzed. The main conclusions of this paper are as following.firstly, no matter take forest carbon sinks into account or not, it is found that the carbon emissions of three regions all present a decrease-increase trend, and the annual forest carbon sinks has no significant effect on reducing carbon emissions. Secondly, from the point of the carbon emission space patterns, the peak years of carbon emissions are not far off between Beijing and Tianjin （about 2030） while Hebei Province has disparity（about 2039）. Thirdly, the forest carbon sinks decreases in Beijing and Tianjin, but the opposite relationship occurs in Hebei Province.

关 键 词：动力学模型 能源消费量 碳排放 碳汇 京津冀 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]