人口与消费对二氧化碳排放的动态影响——基于变参数模型的实证分析  

Dynamic Effects on Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Population and Consumption:An Empirical Analysis Based on Variable Parameter Model

作　　者：李国志[1,2] 周明[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院 [2]江西农业大学南昌商学院 [3]东华理工大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2012年第1期63-72,共10页Population Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(批准号:71063001)

摘　　要：近年来,随着全球气候的不断变暖,二氧化碳减排问题已经引起了世界性的关注。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国,必须逐步降低经济发展过程中的碳排放。基于此,利用1978～2009年的相关数据和变参数模型,分析了人口数量和居民消费对我国二氧化碳排放的动态影响。结果表明,人口、消费与二氧化碳排放之间存在长期稳定的关系,二者对碳排放均有比较显著的影响。从总体来看,人口对碳排放的影响弹性要高于消费对碳排放的弹性,但是近年来两者之间的差距越来越小,说明消费对二氧化碳排放的影响力日益增大;随着时间波动,人口与消费对碳排放的影响弹性会呈现规律性的变化,并且可以将其划分为三个明显的阶段。依据上述结论,文章提出了相关政策建议,以减少由人口和消费带来的二氧化碳排放。With global climate warming, the problem of carbon dioxide emissions reduction has attracted worldwide attention in the recent past. As the largest carbon emitter, China must gradually reduce the carbon emissions in the process of economic development. Drawing on the time series data between 1978 to 2009 and using variable parameter model, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects on carbon dioxide emissions of population and consumption in China. Results show that there is a longterm stable relationship among population, consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and the effects of population and consumption are very significant. Overall, the population elasticity is greater than the consumption elasticity, but the gap becomes smaller in recent years. Influence of consumption is increasing. There is a regular pattern in the trend of impact elasticity of population and consumption, and the trend can be divided into three distinct phases. With these findings, this paper discusses policy im- plications for reducing carbon dioxide emissions relating to population and consumption.

关 键 词：二氧化碳排放 人口增长 消费水平 变参数模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] C924.2[社会学—人口学]