灰色系统理论在干旱预测中的应用研究  

Application of Grey System Theory on Drought Prediction

作　　者：刘代勇[1] 梁忠民[1] 赵卫民[2] 刘晓伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《水力发电》2012年第2期10-12,共3页Water Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(200901022);云南省科技计划项目(2010CA013)

摘　　要：干旱灾害频繁发生,导致了农业生产的恶性循环,造成环境的持续恶化和污染的加剧。开展干旱评估、预测预警等研究,已成为抵御干旱灾害亟待解决的问题。结合华县的年降水量资料,将干旱视为一个灰色系统,根据灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对未来干旱年份进行预测。经检验,模型结果符合实际,具有一定的可信度,能为华县地区抗旱和供水提供必要的预测信息。应用进行预测表明,华县2012年～2013年、2019年～2020年期间将发生干旱。The frequent occurrence of drought can lead to a vicious cycle of agricultural production, continuous environment degradation and an increase in pollution. Research on drought assessment, forecasting and early warning has become a serious issue to control drought disaster. Based on the annual precipitation data in Huaxian County, the gray GM （1,1） mode! is used to predict the future drought occurrence after taking the drought as a gray system. The model test shows that the model is credible and can be used for drought and water supply prediction in Huaxian area. The predictions show that there will be drought during 2012-2013 and 2019-2020.

关 键 词：灰色理论 干旱预测 GM(1 1)模型 华县 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S423[农业科学—植物保护]