基于技术变革分类的技术追赶过程研究  

Variation of Innovation Rates with Different Catch-Up Patterns

作　　者：王方瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2011年第4期235-242,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70810107021;71172112);国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(70802054)

摘　　要：本文基于技术变革分类,提出渐进型、破坏型、革命型三种技术追赶路径,并提炼各路径不同发展阶段的创新重点及动态演化特征。借助曲线拟合方法,初步获得三种技术追赶路径的创新演化特征。在渐进型技术追赶过程中,创新率的最大值出现在路径后期,之后虽有下降,但幅度不大;在破坏型技术追赶过程中,尽管创新率曲线呈线性特征,但从散点图特征来看,仍然存在先高、后低、再升高的趋势;在革命型技术追赶过程中,创新率迅速提高至"峰值"后,迅速下降。China has been undergoing impressive economic growth since its economic reforms.However,many studies suggest that technology development strategy remains a challenge for China.According to a 2006 survey report by Chinese Administration of Science and Technology on indigenous industrial innovation capabilities,most industries in China are trapped into augmenting their manufacturing capacities via importing equipment and technology instead of increasing investment in research activities and emerging technologies.Another report issued by China＇s National Bureau of Statistics on national manufacturing innovations from 2004 to 2006 finds consistent results.Most of the surveyed manufacturers in this study are comfortable with continuous improvements using existing technologies.Only 9% of firms in this study try to catch up with leading domestic competitors,and only 2.7% of them aim at catching up quickly with leading international competitors. In this paper,we approach these questions related to the evolution of innovations by developing dynamic models for all possible catch-up patterns and by testing them against the collected data.First,we re-categorize technological changes in order to provide a general framework for the analysis of technology development trajectories.Second,catch-up patterns are investigated with a view towards developing a new categorization of technological change.Finally,each dynamic model of the evolution of innovation is developed in relation to a pattern of catch-up pattern.On the basis of these dynamic models,we propose hypotheses regarding the evolution of innovations and when transition occurs.We assert that the evolution of innovation exhibits variations in the level of novelty and thus the decision of firms to invest in innovation is not simply a matter of deciding whether to imitate mature technologies or develop new technologies. We conduct an initial feasibility test of our proposed model revised from the design of Utterback and Abernathy.First,we classify samples into three types o

关 键 词：技术变革 技术追赶 创新演化 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]