中国自然灾害与粮食生产脱钩关系分析  

Analysis on Decoupling Relationship between Natural Disasters and Grain Production in China

作　　者：王秀芬[1] 李茂松[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2012年第1期94-97,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目(GYHY201006026)

摘　　要：利用脱钩理论,对全国和粮食产量之和占全国总产量90%以上的19个省(市、区)粮食生产与自然灾害之间的脱钩关系进行了分析。结果表明,从长时段来看,全国粮食生产和自然灾害之间表现为扩张耦合的关系;19个省(市、区)粮食生产和自然灾害之间均表现为耦合的关系,其中湖北、浙江、广东表现为负向耦合关系,其他省(市、区)表现为扩张耦合关系。The paper analyzes the decoupling relationship between grain production and natural disasters of whole China and 19 provinces （cities, districts） of which grain yields account for more than 90% of gross grain yield, by use of the decoupling theory. The results show that （ 1 ） the relationship between grain production and natural disasters of whole China is shown as expansive decoupling relationship from the long time; （2） the relationship between grain production and natural disasters of 19 provinces （cities, districts） are all shown as decoupling relationship, Hubei, Zhejiang and Guangdong appear as negative decoupling relationship, the other 16 provinces （cities, districts） appear as expansive decoupling relationship.

关 键 词：自然灾害 粮食生产 脱钩理论 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]