我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间的关联性研究  

Studies on the Relationships between the Monetary Policy Cycels and Business Cycles

作　　者：刘金全[1] 王雄威[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,130012

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2012年第1期3-9,共7页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&006);国家自然科学基金项目(70971055)资助

摘　　要：改革开放以来,我国的货币政策出现了多次紧缩和扩张之间的交替,形成了显著的货币政策周期。下行经济周期往往都是发生在货币紧缩政策结束之后。为了度量货币政策作用效果,我们需要建立货币政策周期与经济周期之间的内在关联机制,并从众多的反映宏观经济状态的指标从中选取合适的预测指标来反映其内在机制。通过实证检验发现,我国自1996年以来共出现了3次产出增长率的下降,而这3次产出降低都发生在紧缩性货币政策结束之后。这说明我国货币政策周期与经济周期之间存在密切关联,货币政策操作也存在相机选择的内生属性,并且M1同比增速和金融机构新增短期贷款能够更准确地预测在紧缩性货币政策实施之后是否会出现下行经济周期。Since the Reform and Open-up,expansions and contractions superceded with each other during the implement of China＇s monetary policy,thus forming significant operational cycles.In order to measure the effects of monetary policy,we need to construct an interaction mechanism between the operational cycles of monetary policy and business cycles.Based on the test results,this paper singles out 9 contractions of monetary policy during the chosen samples.Moreover,3 out of these 9 contractions brought about decreases in output,while they contains all the output decreases since 1996.This indicates that interrelationship does exist between monetary policy cycles and business cycles,and the implement of monetary policy follows a ＂discretion＂ way to some extent.

关 键 词：货币政策 经济周期 关联性 预测 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]