以概率论的视角理性看待社会热点  

On society hotspots from perspective of probability theory

作　　者：姜颖[1] 王晓锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学理学院,四川绵阳621010 [2]渤海大学数理学院,辽宁锦州121013

出　　处：《沈阳师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第1期27-31,共5页Journal of Shenyang Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目(2009jy0066)

摘　　要：新闻各有不同,视角各有侧重,透过概率论的视角能够还原一个清晰的世界。通过概率论全面解析近期社会热点问题,力图向人们揭示概率论与生活是亲密无间,无处不在的。概率论知识是一个有用的生活工具,缺乏概率论的知识将"一头雾水,举步维艰"。主要应用小概率事件的原理、二项分布和泊松分布、数学期望、贝叶斯公式、中心极限定理、方差、独立性等基本理论来诠释各类社会新闻,探讨概率论知识在实际生活中的广泛应用,让初学者了解概率论知识与人类实践紧密联系的丰富底蕴,以扩大初学者对概率论应用的了解,增加学习概率论的兴趣。同时,为应用概率知识解决实际问题,数学模型的建立,学科知识的迁移奠定一定的理论基础。Social news varies and possesses respective focuses, which can be studied from the perspective of probability theory so as to demonstrate a clear world by sorting them. Analyzing the social hotspots from the unique perspective of probability theory, this paper reveals that the probability theory has close relationship with our life. Lacking the useful tool from probability theory, we are doomed to become ＂baffled, crippled＂. With the principle of small probability events, binomial distribution and Poisson distribution, mathematical expectation, Bayesian formula, central limit theorem, variance, independence theorem, and other basic theories from probability theory are applied to explain various social news. This paper aims at exploring the applications of probability theory in real life and stimulating the beginners＇ interest in learning, and hence laying a foundation for them to solve actual problems by establishing the mathematical models.

关 键 词：社会热点 概率论 应用 兴趣 

分 类 号：O211.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]